Valuing adaptation under rapid change

AbstractThe methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change.Please cite this report as: Jones, RN, Young, CK, Handmer, J, Keating, A, Mekala, GD, Sheehan, P 2013 Valuing adaptation under rapid change, National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility, Gold Coast, pp. 192.The methods used to plan adaptation to climate change have been heavily influenced by scientific narratives of gradual change and economic narratives of marginal adjustments to that change. An investigation of the theoretical aspects of how the climate changes suggests that scientific narratives of climate change are socially constructed, biasing scientific narratives to descriptions of gradual as opposed rapid, non-linear change. Evidence of widespread step changes in recent climate records and in model projections of future climate is being overlooked because of this. Step-wise climate change has the potential to produce rapid increases in extreme events that can cross institutional, geographical and sectoral domains.Likewise, orthodox economics is not well suited to the deep uncertainty faced under climate change, requiring a multi-faceted approach to adaptation. The presence of tangible and intangible values range across five adaptation clusters: goods; services; capital assets and infrastructure; social assets and infrastructure; and natural assets and infrastructure. Standard economic methods have difficulty in giving adequate weight to the different types of values across these clusters. They also do not account well for the inter-connectedness of impacts and subsequent responses between agents in the economy. As a result, many highly-valued aspects of human and environmental capital are being overlooked.Recent extreme events are already pressuring areas of public policy, and national strategies for emergency response and disaster risk reduction are being developed as a consequence. However, the potential for an escalation of total damage costs due to rapid change requires a coordinated approach at the institutional level, involving all levels of government, the private sector and civil society.One of the largest risks of maladaptation is the potential for un-owned risks, as risks propagate across domains and responsibility for their management is poorly allocated between public and private interests, and between the roles of the individual and civil society. Economic strategies developed by the disaster community for disaster response and risk reduction provide a base to work from, but many gaps remain.We have developed a framework for valuing adaptation that has the following aspects: the valuation of impacts thus estimating values at risk, the evaluation of different adaptation options and strategies based on cost, and the valuation of benefits expressed as a combination of the benefits of avoided damages and a range of institutional values such as equity, justice, sustainability and profit.The choice of economic methods and tools used to assess adaptation depends largely on the ability to constrain uncertainty around problems (predictive uncertainty) and solutions (outcome uncertainty). Orthodox methods can be used where both are constrained, portfolio methodologies where problems are constrained and robust methodologies where solutions are constrained. Where both are unconstrained, process-based methods utilising innovation methods and adaptive management are most suitable. All methods should involve stakeholders where possible.Innovative processes methods that enable transformation will be required in some circumstances, to allow institutions, sectors and communities to prepare for anticipated major change

Transforming through diversity and inclusion capability: The pathway to achieving diversity benefits

A key driver for building diversity and inclusion (D&I) in emergency management organisations (EMOs) is to better represent diverse cohorts and ensure EMOs and their communities become more resilient to natural hazards. While EMOs have made some progress, dynamic transformation is required to effectively manage the rapidly changing contexts they and their communities face. Central to this is the need to expand the current service–client relationship to become a more inclusive partnership model that builds resilience. This paper reports on Phase 2 of the Bushfire and Natural Hazards Cooperative Research Centre project Diversity and inclusion: Building strength and capability, which aimed to develop a D&I framework for the emergency management sector (EMS). Key aspects are: [1] A process framework to guide organisations by linking strategic objectives to day-today decision making and integrates D&I practice into organisational systems; [2] Identification and development of specific strategic and people-based capabilities and skills; [3] Management of risks arising as a result of D&I shocks; and [4] A process to measure and manage progress and assess the benefits derived from investment

Evidence insufficient to confirm the value of population screening for diabetes and hypertension in low- and-middle-income settings

To assess the evidence from systematic reviews on the effect on morbidity and mortality of blanket screening for hypertension or diabetes mellitus compared with targeted, opportunistic or no screening, we searched for relevant systematic reviews and conducted duplicate study selection, data extraction and quality appraisal. Results were summarised narratively. We included two completed reviews of moderate quality and one ongoing Cochrane review. In one completed review, general health checks had no effect on total morbidity or mortality or on healthcare services compared with no health checks. In the other, intensive hypertension screening methods were ineffective in increasing screening uptake or detecting new cases compared with less intensive methods. Both reviews included studies in high-income settings. There is insufficient evidence from currently available systematic reviews to confirm a beneficial effect of blanket screening for hypertension and/or diabetes compared with other types of screening methods in low- and middle-income settings. Scarce resources are being mobilised to implement mass screening intervention for diabetes and hypertension without adequate evidence of its effects. A systematic review is needed to assess clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness and overall impact on the health system of screening strategies, especially in low- and middle-income settings such as exist in South Africa. Robust evaluation of these outcomes would then be necessary to inform secondary prevention strategies

Inflammatory Markers of the Systemic Capillary Leak Syndrome (Clarkson Disease)

Objectives: The Systemic Capillary Leak Syndrome (SCLS) is a rare and potentially fatal disorder resembling systemic anaphylaxis that is characterized by transient episodes of hypotensive shock and peripheral edema. The pathogenesis of SCLS is unknown, and triggers for attacks are apparent only in a minority of patients. We introduce a clinical algorithm for the diagnosis of SCLS, and we investigated potential serum biomarkers of acute SCLS episodes. Methods: We analyzed serum cytokines in a cohort of 35 patients with an established diagnosis of SCLS and characterized the effects of SCLS sera on endothelial cell function. We investigated the cellular source(s) of CXCL10, a chemokine that was significantly elevated in both basal and acute SCLS sera, by flow cytometry. Results: Several cytokines were elevated in acute SCLS sera compared to baseline or sera from healthy controls, including CXCL10, CCL2, IL-1β, IL-6, IL-8, IL-12 and TNFα. The majority of acute sera failed to activate endothelial cells as assessed by surface adhesion marker expression. Monocytes appear to be the major source of serum CXCL10, and the percentage of CXLC10+ monocytes in response to IFNγ stimulation was increased in SCLS subjects compared to controls. Conclusions: The presence of proinflammatory cytokines in acute SCLS sera suggests that inflammation or infection may have a role in triggering episodes. The enhanced capacity of monocytes from SCLS patients to produce CXCL10 suggests a new therapeutic avenue for SCLS

Dissemination Trial For Health For Hearts United: Model Development, Preliminary Outcomes and Lessons Learned

BACKGROUND: Cardiovascular disease CVD), the leading cause of death in the U.S., is a particular problem for African Americans (AAs). Church-based health interventions are effective in reducing CVD risk, yet few have been successfully disseminated. This paper describes the model development, preliminary health outcomes, and lessons learned from the Health for Hearts United (HHU) dissemination trial which evolved from the longitudinal Reducing CVD Risk Study in a two-county area in North Florida. Community-based participatory research approaches and the socio-ecological model guided the study. METHODS: Data for this paper were from health leaders (n = 25) in the first six churches investigated, and the outreach participants (n = 86) they engaged. Health leaders completed survey items (daily servings of fruits/vegetables [F/V], fat consumption [FAT], and daily minutes of physical activity [PA]) and clinical measures (body mass index [BMI]; waist, hip and abdomen circumferences; and systolic and diastolic blood pressure [BP]). For outreach participants, a brief CVD Awareness Quiz was administered. Data were analyzed using description statistics, Pearson correlations, and repeated measures analysis of variance. RESULTS: Findings showed that the dissemination model was implemented by 100% of the churches, and resulted in health outcomes changes for health leaders (significant increases between pre- and post-test in F/V; significant decreases in FAT, BMI, abdomen circumference, with educational level and marital status as selected significant covariates) and in a significant increase in CVD awareness for outreach participants. Lessons learned are discussed. Although preliminary, the results suggest that the HHU dissemination model has promise for reducing CVD risk in AA's

Increased Myocardial Extracellular Volume in Active Idiopathic Systemic Capillary Leak Syndrome

BACKGROUND: The Systemic Capillary Leak Syndrome (SCLS) is a rare disorder of unknown etiology presenting as recurrent episodes of shock and peripheral edema due to leakage of fluid into soft tissues. Insights into SCLS pathogenesis are few due to the scarcity of cases, and the etiology of vascular barrier disruption in SCLS is unknown. Recent advances in cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) allow for the quantitative assessment of the myocardial extracellular volume (ECV), which can be increased in conditions causing myocardial edema. We hypothesized that measurement of myocardial ECV may detect myocardial vascular leak in patients with SCLS. METHODS: Fifty-six subjects underwent a standard CMR examination at the NIH Clinical Center from 2009 until 2014: 20 patients with acute intermittent SCLS, six subjects with chronic SCLS, and 30 unaffected controls. Standard volumetric measurements; late gadolinium enhancement imaging and pre- and post-contrast T1 mapping were performed. ECV was calculated by calibration of pre- and post-contrast T1 values with blood hematocrit. RESULTS: Demographics and cardiac parameters were similar in both groups. There was no significant valvular disorder in either group. Subjects with chronic SCLS had higher pre-contrast myocardial T1 compared to healthy controls (T1: 1027 ± 44 v. 971 ± 41, respectively; p = 0.03) and higher myocardial ECV than patients with acute intermittent SCLS or controls: 33.8 ± 4.6, 26.9 ± 2.6, 26 ± 2.4, respectively; p = 0.007 v. acute intermittent; P = 0.0005 v. controls). When patients with chronic disease were analyzed together with five patients with acute intermittent disease who had just experienced an acute SCLS flare, ECV values were significantly higher than in subjects with acute intermittent SCLS in remission or age-matched controls and (31.2 ± 4.6 %, 26.5 ± 2.7 %, 26 ± 2.4 %, respectively; p = 0.01 v. remission, p = 0.001 v. controls). By contrast, T1 values did not distinguish these three subgroups (1008 ± 40, 978 ± 40, 971 ± 41, respectively, p = 0.2, active v. remission; p = 0.06 active v. controls). Abundant myocardial edema without evidence of acute inflammation was detected in cardiac tissue postmortem in one patient. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with active SCLS have significantly higher myocardial ECV than age-matched controls or SCLS patients in remission, which correlated with histopathological findings in one patient

Compostaje de la cama de pollo como procedimiento para la eliminación de microorganismos patógenos

El uso de cama de pollo sin tratar en los sistemas hortícolas, implica un riesgo de salud de magnitud. Ahondamos en el tema para proponer estrategias saludables de su utilizaciónEEA BalcarceFil: Pellegrini, María Celeste. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología de Alimentos y Ambiente; Argentina.Fil: Ponce, Alejandra. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ingeniería; Argentina. Instituto de Ciencia y Tecnología de Alimentos y Ambiente; Argentina.Fil: Okada, Elena. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Innovación para la Producción Agropecuaria y el Desarrollo Sostenible; Argentina.Fil: Lavallén, Carla. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Producción, Sanidad y Ambiente; Argentina.Fil: Dopchiz, Marcela. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales; Argentina. Instituto de Investigaciones en Producción, Sanidad y Ambiente; Argentina.Fil: Rizzo, Pedro Federico. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Mendoza; Argentina.Fil: Pérez, Débora. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Innovación para la Producción Agropecuaria y el Desarrollo Sostenible; Argentina.Fil: Carciochi, Walter. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Estación Experimental Agropecuaria Balcarce; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Instituto de Innovación para la Producción Agropecuaria y el Desarrollo Sostenible; Argentina.Fil: Carciochi, Walter. Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata. Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias; Argentina.Fil: Young, Brian. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA). Centro de Investigación en Ciencias Veterinarias y Agronómicas. Instituto de Microbiología y Zoología Agrícola; Argentina

Reducing Cardiovascular Disease Risk In Mid-Life and Older African Americans: A Church-Based Longitudinal Intervention Project At Baseline

Introduction: African Americans (AAs) experience higher age-adjusted morbidity and mortality than Whites for cardiovascular disease (CVD). Church-based health programs can reduce risk factors for CVD, including elevated blood pressure [BP], excess body weight, sedentary lifestyle and diet. Yet few studies have incorporated older adults and longitudinal designs. Purposes: The aims of this study are to: a) describe a theory-driven longitudinal intervention study to reduce CVD risk in mid-life and older AAs; b) compare selected dietary (fruit and vegetable servings/day, fat consumption), physical activity (PA) and clinical variables (BMI, girth circumferences, systolic and diastolic BP, LDL, HDL, total cholesterol [CHOL] and HDL/CHOL) between treatment and comparison churches at baseline; c) identify selected background characteristics (life satisfaction, social support, age, gender, educational level, marital status, living arrangement and medication use) at baseline that may confound results; and d) share the lessons learned. Methods: This study incorporated a longitudinal pre/post with comparison group quasi-experimental design. Community-based participatory research (CBPR) was used to discover ideas for the study, identify community advisors, recruit churches (three treatment, three comparison) in two-counties in North Florida, and randomly select 221 mid-life and older AAs (45 +) (n = 104 in clinical subsample), stratifying for age and gender. Data were collected through self-report questionnaires and clinical assessments. Results and Conclusions: Dietary, PA and clinical results were similar to the literature. Treatment and comparison groups were similar in background characteristics and health behaviors but differed in selected clinical factors. For the total sample, relationships were noted for most of the background characteristics. Lessons learned focused on community relationships and participant recruitment